Note: This column represents the opinions
of the writer and as such, is not purported as fact
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It's beginning to look increasingly as if the good old hard drive will soon
all but disappear from portable devices such as digital music players and
perhaps even laptops.
I recall the days when a single 128-bit (that's BIT, not byte, Kbyte or Mbyte!)
memory chip cost what would be about $20 in today's money. Things got better
in the late 1970s when economies of scale and improved yields meant that
a 2Kbyte RAM chip cost just $60 in today's money -- but memory was still very
expensive stuff.
Now we find that the average PC ships with at least 256MB of memory and you can
buy portable media players with 1GB or more of solid-state memory onboard. What's
more, these things cost just a tiny fraction the price of the first IBM PC, a
machine that had just two 340Kbyte floppies and 64Kbytes of RAM.
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RAM prices are now at an all-time low, and we're not just talking about
the kind of RAM that forgets its contents when the lights go out.
Flash-RAM doesn't suffer from power-off amnesia and can retain its contents
for many, many years -- effectively making it a great way to store and shift
data around in a harsh environment.
Many of the devices we now take for example would not be practical without
the now ubiquitous flash memory cards that can now be had in sizes of up to
1GB. What's more, the massive growth in this area of consumer electronics
means that prices for these solid-state memory devices continues to free-fall
and it's only a matter of time before we see 5GB, 20GB or even 100GB versions.
How long therefore, before the hard drive becomes a legacy device?
I'd wager that within five years, most of the portable PCs on the market will
rely on large amounts of flash ram rather than fragile hard drives.
I'd also wager that versions of these memory cards with hard DRM will eventually
become the predominant method for the physical sale of music and other media.
With the recording and movie industries suffering terminal paranoia in respect
to protecting their wares, a "locked-down" memory card that only spews out
a decrypted data-stream when all the DRM parameters are correctly matched probably
sounds like a great idea.
What's more, if the industry designs such a standard and dictates that it will
only provide its product in this format then the manufacturing companies will
simply have to follow along -- and probably pay royalties for the privilege.
Of course we know that such a scheme won't work -- but the beancounters at the RIAA
will (as usual) ignore such sage observations and continue regardless.
So yes, the future is in flash ram and it's a big future!
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