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The next big thing online: DRM?

Entrepreneurs and investors are always looking for clues as to what the next "big thing" (TNBT) will be.

If you can hitch your wagon to TNBT early enough then there are often immense riches to be had -- so an effective crystal ball in the tech-sector is a very valuable thing.

Unfortunately for consumers, it's starting to look as if TNBT might just be an effective and widely adopted set of DRM standards to "protect" intellectual property in an era of ever-faster, ever more accessible global communications.

Even the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) is working hard to roll out HTML standards that will lock up protected content in a way that makes it possible for owners to deny, restrict or control its copying and redistribution. What's more, you know bad things are coming when the W3C welcomes the MPAA into its ranks.

Apparently the MPAA hooked up with the W3C while at CES this week and Alex Deacon, the MPAA's senior VP for Internet technology has been crowing on Twitter about the relationship that has now been forged.

Of course as a content producer, I'm someone who ought to be embracing the concept of a having DRM integrated into the HTML standard -- yet somehow, I'm not.

While it's true that I would like to maintain control over where my content is published and restrict unauthorised republication for profit -- integrating strong DRM into the HTML standard may not be the best solution for consumers

What's more, anyone who believes that such DRM won't be circumvented by keen hackers is simply dreaming.

To date, all attempts by the MPAA to protect its content via DRM have failed and the reality is that it's often the DRM that drives otherwise law-abiding folk to download illegal copies. I've lost track of the number of DVDs I've been forced to rip to a DVDR simply because I get pee'd off being accused of a crime I haven't committed.

How dare DVD publishers force me to sit there while my TV screen tells me of all the hideous penalties that will be dumped on me if I *dare* to copy this disk. Why on earth am I required to sit through unskippable ads (with pirated music) that tell me just how evil it would be to even think about ripping this DVD?

Once DRM gets in the way of users being able to enjoy the content they've paid for then it's only natural that they're going to find ways around it.

When faced with the choice of waiting months to purchase a store-bought DVD of a current box-office movie and then have to sit through all the prelude dross and threats whenever you want to watch it -- or simply hitting a P2P network and downloading a nicely ripped copy without the crap, many folk will (understandably) opt for the latter.

The same goes for online content.

If publishers pile too much advertising on their pages or pre-rolls; if they charge too much for their subscription services; then people will crack whatever DRM is attached and entire pirate networks will appear which deliver that same content for free.

Publishers have to realise that locks on doors work both ways. Not only do they stop people from walking out with their content but they also do a damned good job of keeping people out once they leave.

I still believe that the future of online publishing is the "global subscription" model -- where you pay a monthly stipend as part of your ISP bill and that stipend is divvied up and sent to the publishers of content that you access. This way there is no need and only a very small financial benefit to pirate anything -- since it is all freely (on condition of the stipend) available anyway.

So, as I've said before, TNBT is the creation of a universal subscription service that delivers strong revenues to publishers, a useful clip on the ticket for ISPs and extraordinary value for consumers.

Just how big would this be?

Well imagine if *you* were pocketing just 10c a month in net profit from each Internet account on the planet. That's big!

Just look at the success of NetFlix and you'll see that there are huge swathes of the Net population who'd gladly pay a small stipend for access to good quality content -- all you have to do is make that a universal service that encompasses the widest possible range of content sources, ISPs and consumers.

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