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The Kessler Syndrome looms

Right now there are around 10,000 satellites orbiting in the heavens above the Earth.

That might sound like a lot however, if you work out the total volume of space involved, the actual density remains incredibly low. That's because space, even orbital space, is really big.

Never the less, there are plenty who believe that we are not too far away from experiencing the effects of the Kessler Syndrome.

All it would take, we're told, is for a few of these birds to explode into tiny fragements for the whole thing to kick off. Bits of debris would collide with other satellites, creating further debris, etc, etc.

Once this chain reaction began it would render quite a bit of our valuable orbital space next to useless and could significantly impact many of the satellite-based services we so heavily rely on these days.

SpaceX's satellite-based internet service alone has around 4,000 operational sats in orbit at about 550Km above the earth's surface and there are plenty of others in closer proximity -- many of these are "spy" satellites and therefore represent a valuable "target" for military foes.

It is with this in mind that I read with interest reports of a Russia launching an anti-satellite weapon last week.

There's scant information on exactly what this weapon is or how it may be designed to take-out enemy satellites but both China and Russia have previously demonstrated that they have this tech and have successfully tested it in orbit.

In its simplest form I guess all you have to do is explode some kind of fragmentation device in reasonable proximity to the satellite you're trying to disable and the odds are very high that you'll damage some critical components on that craft. Unfortunately, the rest of the schrapnel could likely go on to damage other satellites, perhaps even your own. For this reason I would expect that these anti-satellite weapons are going to rely on less kinetic forms of attack -- perhaps EMP or laser, where the side-effects are zero or at least minimised.

Another option is of course a tactical nuclear warhead. That would provide a kinetic effect as well as EMP and heat -- effectively having a pretty wide radius of effect and allowing multiple enemy satellites to be disabled with a single detonation.

It's rather sad that all sides are spending so much money on developing technology that serves to destroy itself and us.

Wise men have predicted that the third world war may be fought with nuclear weapons but the fourth world war will be waged with sticks and stones. I can see how that might come to pass.

Russia is once again sabre-rattling over Ukraine and has begun engaging in exercises focused on the deployment of tactical battle-field nukes in the region. Let's hope Putin realises that nuclear fission reactions, by their very nature, tend to be chain reactions with a rapidly growing exponential effect that quickly becomes impossible to control. I can not see any scenario where a "limited nuclear exchage" does not escalate into a global one.

As a species, we do not seem (right now) to be much removed from our primate ancestors. The only significant difference is the sophistication of our weapons.

When will we become intelligent enough to realise that there is far more to be had from cooperation and friendship than there is from conflict and war?

Perhaps we will not survive long enough to find out.

Carpe Diem folks!

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