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Will our tech be any use in the wake of war?

Russia is manufacturing nuclear shelters at a high rate right now and Germany is in the process of designating swathes of public places as fallout shelters.

Yes, things are really that bad up North, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to worsen into a much wider confrontation.

Do I think it will end in a nuclear war?

I very much doubt it -- even Putin has a sufficiently strong survival instinct that he's unlikely to unleash a nuclear armageddon on the world.

However, it is perhaps a good time to consider exactly what bits of of our every-day technology would still be of use, should the worst happen.

Firstly, what about devices that rely on GPS?

If a global nuclear conflict were to errupt I would expect that all sides would consider their opponent's satellite positioning systems to be a high-value target.

Both China and Russia have demonstrated their anti-satellite technology so we can safely assume that they already have measures in place to destroy or significantly degrade the USA and European GPS networks. You can be pretty sure that the USA is also well-positioned to deal devastating blows to the Russian and Sino equivalents.

With GPS knocked out or significantly affected, the sat-nav in your car would become all but useless and other GPS_reliant systems, such as those used by crop sprayers, farmers, surveyors and the like would be similarly disabled.

"But", I hear you ask, "what about the internet?"

Well the undersea cables should be relatively safe from things such as the EMP produced by nuclear detonations but as we've recently seen, they are also a high-value target. China is accused of slicing undersea internet cables recently and who knows how many underwater charges are sitting on the ocean floor just waiting to be deployed in an attempt to cripple an enemies links with its allies?

From a consumer perspective, the internet would likely suffer significant degradation in time of war. Some of this would be simply governments flicking the "off" switch and the rest would be due to deliberate attacks.

Why would governments flick the "off" switch?

Well it's because, as we've already seen, cyber-attacks have become yet another form of warfare. If you can disable elements of an enemy's critical infrastructure by hacking into their internet-connected systems then you can put them at a huge disadvantage. It is reported that Russian cyber-attacks against Western targets are now running at an all-time high and this would only increase in the event that the war in Ukraine escalates further.

So... no Facebook, YouTube, Netflix and Disney+ for you!

Loss of global connectivity through the internet could also have other far-reaching but less obvious ramifications.

Increasingly, many of our appliances, gadgets and even our cars are reliant on maintaining contact with servers in far-off lands. What happens if those servers are no longer accessible? Will these devices start throwing errors and refuse to work?

Now to your smartphone...

With internet down, at least you'll still be able to use your smartphone to make calls and send SMS messages, right?

Sorry but you may find that these core services won't work either.

That's because 4G and 5G networks are hugely reliant on the timing signals sent by the network of GPS satellites that fill the heavens and, as I mentioned earlier, this service is likely to disappear or be hugely degraded.

It could be that good old CB radio or other RF-based communications becomes our best option in the wake of global nuclear war breaking out -- or maybe we could resurect some of that copper that used to carry our land-line calls.

The worst effects of such a global conflict may not be immediate however.

Much of the tech we use is imported. Even things like power transformers, generators, our computers and other devices are all sourced from far-off lands. Eventually we'll need replacement parts or replacement devices but they simply will not be available.

This means that the available technology will slowly decrease over time, for at least a decade or so. It gets even worse if we are also hit by a powerful CME as the solar cycle peaks. Losing more transformers on the power grid than we can replace would pose a huge hurdle to keeping the lights on.

Ah... so there we go. That's the depressing outlook.

Don't be too downheartened however. Here in New Zealand we have the luxury of being far away from the main fallout centres and even if we end up being cast back into the equivalent of the early 20th century, we'll survive and likely prosper. Spare a thought instead for those across the Northern Hemisphere who would be far worse off than ourselves.

And remember, the odds are very much that none of this will happen anyway.

Carpe Diem folks!

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