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At last,
the contents of Aardvark's "million-dollar ideas" notebook
are revealed for all to see!
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First up -- I have to say, in light of recent comments about Microsoft's
poor security track record and unsuitability for anything related to
security and e-government -- Microsoft is scurrying around in an attempt
to patch
yet another hole in its webserver software.
Let's hope that our politicians can pull their heads out of the trough just
long enough to take this kind of thing onboard before they commit millions
of taxpayer dollars to another INCIS.
However, the intent of today's column is not to crucify Microsoft but rather
to warn them that they're pursuing a number of strategies that might ultimately
become their undoing in the marketplace.
Now we all know that every man and his dog uses Microsoft software on their
home and office PCs -- and I'm sure there isn't anyone reading this who
hasn't obtained a "test copy" of a Microsoft product from a friend or through
some other source at least once in their life.
It would not be hard to mount a pretty strong argument that, certainly in its
early years, Microsoft benefitted tremendously from this level of software
piracy which acted as a powerful marketing tool. Because so many bootleg
copies of MSDOS, MS Word, Windows and other bits of software proliferated,
Microsoft's brand spread far and wide with many people effectively getting
"hooked" on the upgrade cycle from which MS makes so much money.
Now, as trialed in New Zealand, South America and a few other countries, the
"registration is mandatory" licensing scheme that was introduced with Windows 2000
is about to become a global imposition on Microsoft's customers.
Microsoft is now such a dominant force in the marketplace that it believes
it can squeeze every last cent out of every single copy of software in existence.
It no longer needs the free marketing that pirated copies of its packages provided
in the early days -- and it wants every cent it can lay its hands on.
Okay -- nobody can grizzle about that -- they are in business to make a profit
after all.
But with the gradual emergence of alternative products such as Linux, Sun Office
and snazzy Linux-GUIs, are Microsoft perhaps pushing their luck a little far
with their new draconian licensing practices?
Let's also look at the way Microsoft is positioning itself to be "the" platform
for controlling the proliferation of other people's intellectual property.
Word is that they're planning to introduce heavy licensing, watermarking and
copy-restriction code into Windows which means that they'll be able to extract
"protection money" from music publishers, film distributors, software vendors,
and just about anyone else who sells their data in digital format.
"Pay us a wad of money and we'll make sure that all Windows-based software
honours your licensing information" will be the pitch -- and what publisher
could afford to say no in the wake of the huge rise in piracy through systems
such as Napster, CDR drives, etc.
Oh... but the risk Microsoft runs is that some young upstart will get enough
investment capital behind them to smooth out the rough edges on Linux and really
bring it to the big-time. What happens if the masses turn away from Microsoft's
desire not only to be present on your computer but to totally control it?
I see a huge opportunity coming here -- and a huge danger for Microsoft.
Perhaps this is why they've decided not to go ahead with their supposedly
fool-proof
digital media watermarking system --- YET.
What do you think? Are you worried that Microsoft might be gaining just too
much control of your computer and what you're able to do with it? Are you
concerned that simply paying for Microsoft's software is not enough to
allow you to use it -- you must effectively hand over significant details
about its internal configuration by registering it?
And is Linux ready for the big-time yet? When (if ever) will it really pose a threat
to Microsoft's dominance?
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