Note: This column represents the opinions
of the writer and as such, is not purported as fact
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It's less than 12 months since I moved from Auckland to
Tokoroa -- and now I'm faced with the prospect of moving house again -- ugh!
Fortunately the move is over a much smaller distance this time, just a
couple of Kms, but it does mean a lot of packing and unpacking needs to
be done -- and I have to ensure that my internet connectivity is switched
over as smoothly as possible.
It's actually times like this that the true value of wireless connectivity
becomes apparent.
Fortunately for me, I still have the Vodafone GPRS card that I used when
travelling overseas about this time last year so, with a bit of luck, the
publishing of Aardvark won't be affected by the activities of the next
week or so.
I think it's safe to say that services like GPRS will always have a niche
where very wide area wireless connectivity to portable devices is important.
But what about wireless providers like Woosh and others who are providing
broadband connectivity at far lower prices, albeit with much less coverage,
than GPRS?
Is there really a viable market for these services?
Do they have sufficient capacity and spectrum to grow at the rate and to the levels
required to become economically sustainable in the face of DSL?
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And what ever happened to two-way satellite connectivity -- something that
a new would-be provider announces about once a year but never really seems
to be able to deliver at anything like an affordable price?
Exactly what is the future of broadband delivery?
I see that good old DSL is being enhanced and now the UDSL flavour has
been announced by Texas Instruments.
UDSL lifts the speed of broadband over copper to an astonishing 200mbps and
opens the door to a raft of new services such as HD television -- albeit only
over distances of up to 1 kilometre.
However, this distance limitation isn't the problem you might think and
the strategic positioning of DSLAMs in pillar-boxes around a heavily urbanised city
might still have the potential to turn phone lines into a cost-effective
way of delivering an alternative to cable-based subscriber TV services for
example.
Of course I don't think we'll see this happening here in NZ for a number of
reasons.
Firstly, with only a few exceptions, our population densities are too low
to actually reach a sufficiently large customer-base without massive
infrastructure expenditure. The suburban sprawl that is typical of so many
NZ cities simply isn't well suited to such a short-distance delivery system.
And then there's the simple fact that when you're dealing with a one-to-many
fan-out of the type that broadcasting represents, using RF via broadcast
or satellite makes much more sense in terms of efficient resource use.
And I'd wager that the issue of resource efficiency will become increasingly
important to the future of broadband, particularly wireless broadband.
One of the nice things about cables in the ground is that you can just keep
laying them because the signals in one has no effect on the signals in another.
By comparison, wireless is effectively working with a single cable containing
a large number (but effectively finite) of individual wires. Right now there
are plenty of spare wires in that cable but as the number of users and
the bandwidth they need increases, there's always the risk that a ceiling will
be hit.
The only way to cope with that is to add new wires (frequencies) -- and there
are only a limited number of these available too.
Where do you see the future of broadband delivery headed?
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