Note: This column represents the opinions
of the writer and as such, is not purported as fact
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Since the invention of the transistor and the integrated circuits that
followed, our lives have become incredibly dependent on little bits of
silicon.
Everywhere you look, there are bits of highly sophisticated electronics
taking care of a huge variety of different tasks.
Indeed, if those little bits of silicon were to disappear or fail, we'd
certainly notice -- and odds are that some aspects of our lives would
be set back more than 50 years.
If the humble transistor device failed to operate, neither would our cars,
cellphones, regular telephones, TVs, microwave ovens, watches, power grid,
washing machines -- in fact, you name it and it would probably come to a grinding
halt.
But let's face it, the chances of all those devices failing at one time
are pretty remote -- right?
Well there is intense speculation (check the "Will Compasses
Point South" link on this page)
that an event is
about to take place which could expose us to such a catastrophe.
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Not only is there the risk that a rapid change to the earth's magnetic field
could induce huge surges on power line but if that field were to disappear,
even for a relatively short time, the earth would be exposed to a much higher
level of cosmic radiation.
Some of the particles that the earth's magnetic field protect us from are
decidedly unfriendly to sensitive electronic devices such as computer memory
and processor chips.
While the atmosphere would continue to provide some degree of protection,
the chances of computers and embedded devices being affected is not
insignificant.
Which leaves me wondering -- what is our backup plan?
The good news is that good old-fashioned electronic technology, like the
valve radio that could be found in every house during the 1960's, would
remain largely unaffected by such an event.
Unlike delicate solid-state circuitry, valves are incredibly robust from
an electrical perspective.
The bad news is that much of that robust "old" technology has simply
disappeared, having been replaced by more modern solid-state equipment.
I wonder if we've kept any of those old valve systems that used to represent
the cornerstone of our global communications capability?
What's more, do we have a sufficient number of critical solid-state devices safely stored
away so that they can be used to bootstrap the production of new electronics
should the unimaginable happen? Remember that the tools we use to make modern
electronics are themselves highly dependent on such devices for their operation.
Or is this all just another Y2K scare?
There's a discussion raging
over at Slashdot about this predicted event (with a pretty high noise
level) or you can have your say on the far more focused and refined
Aardvark Forums.
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