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Is our technology too frail? 14 July 2004 Edition
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Since the invention of the transistor and the integrated circuits that followed, our lives have become incredibly dependent on little bits of silicon.

Everywhere you look, there are bits of highly sophisticated electronics taking care of a huge variety of different tasks.

Indeed, if those little bits of silicon were to disappear or fail, we'd certainly notice -- and odds are that some aspects of our lives would be set back more than 50 years.

If the humble transistor device failed to operate, neither would our cars, cellphones, regular telephones, TVs, microwave ovens, watches, power grid, washing machines -- in fact, you name it and it would probably come to a grinding halt.

But let's face it, the chances of all those devices failing at one time are pretty remote -- right?

Well there is intense speculation (check the "Will Compasses Point South" link on this page) that an event is about to take place which could expose us to such a catastrophe.

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Not only is there the risk that a rapid change to the earth's magnetic field could induce huge surges on power line but if that field were to disappear, even for a relatively short time, the earth would be exposed to a much higher level of cosmic radiation.

Some of the particles that the earth's magnetic field protect us from are decidedly unfriendly to sensitive electronic devices such as computer memory and processor chips.

While the atmosphere would continue to provide some degree of protection, the chances of computers and embedded devices being affected is not insignificant.

Which leaves me wondering -- what is our backup plan?

The good news is that good old-fashioned electronic technology, like the valve radio that could be found in every house during the 1960's, would remain largely unaffected by such an event.

Unlike delicate solid-state circuitry, valves are incredibly robust from an electrical perspective.

The bad news is that much of that robust "old" technology has simply disappeared, having been replaced by more modern solid-state equipment.

I wonder if we've kept any of those old valve systems that used to represent the cornerstone of our global communications capability?

What's more, do we have a sufficient number of critical solid-state devices safely stored away so that they can be used to bootstrap the production of new electronics should the unimaginable happen? Remember that the tools we use to make modern electronics are themselves highly dependent on such devices for their operation.

Or is this all just another Y2K scare?

There's a discussion raging over at Slashdot about this predicted event (with a pretty high noise level) or you can have your say on the far more focused and refined Aardvark Forums.

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