Note: This column represents the opinions
of the writer and as such, is not purported as fact
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The Knowledge Economy (KE) and teleworking have both been touted as key
components of our future.
We're told that by ramping up our acceptance and participation in the KE,
New Zealand can overcome the tyranny of distance that frequently adds a
hefty freight charge to our conventional exports.
Teleworking (or telecommuting) offers the promise of reducing the nation's
annual fuel bill, cutting pollution, traffic congestion and hiking our
productivity.
These all sound like compelling reasons to adopt both strategies -- but I fear
that an even more compelling reason is just around the corner.
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Right now, scientists around the world are deeply concerned that we're on
the verge of a massive flu pandemic that would almost certainly kill
tens or hundreds of millions of people world-wide.
Some of the estimates being quoted, suggest that the death-toll in New Zealand
would likely exceed 5,000 people in the first month alone.
The catalyst for this pandemic would be a mutation of the bird virus currently
causing problems in Asia into a form that was able to pass from human to human.
If/when this mutation occurs, one of the strategies being mooted to protect
New Zealand is to close the nation's borders, effectively quarantining us
against the chance of infection from overseas travellers.
Although this might at first glance appear to be a ridiculous option, it's
one that might well be justified, if it were actually a practical method
of saving all those lives that might otherwise be lost.
The other day I asked a doctor friend what use it would be to close the borders
and suggested that as soon as we reopened them, the infection would enter
the country anyway. He pointed out the fact that by that time a vaccination
would likely have been developed against this killer-strain and thus mass-inoculation
could protect our population.
He was also very skeptical about the merits of all the anti-viral drugs
that the government is presently stockpiling in anticipation of this pandemic,
suggesting that it shortened the duration of an infection by about the same
amount of time it would take to go to the chemist to fill the script.
Perhaps this looming pandemic and the option of closing our borders while
a vaccine is formulated is behind the government's moves to force oil companies
to carry reserves sufficient to last the country at least 90 days?
Naturally such a move would massively disrupt our ability to trade in an
international economy -- but this disruption would be a whole lot less if
we were focusing more heavily on intangible knowledge-based products rather
than primary produce.
Imagine the hassles involved in loading overseas ships with logs, dairy and meat
products when you're trying to keep something as small and undetectable
as a virus out. Much easier to transfer software or other IP over the Net
isn't it?
And even if the virus did make it to NZ, wouldn't those who teleworked
be less likely to catch it -- since they would not be forced to commute to
areas of high people-density each and every day.
So it seems that a knowledge based economy has more benefits than we'd
originally thought.
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