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Have we reached "peak Facebook"?

There is no denying that Facebook is big -- very big.

Just about every man, his dog and business has a presence on the social networking website and many people waste spend an inordinate amount of their time logged into the service.

However, I really have to question the estimates that the company is worth $100bn.

Even if the IPO does meet expectations, I don't know that I would be throwing money into the service, for one very good reason

The internet and its users are very fickle.

Today's "hot property" is tomorrow's ghost-town -- and that change can happen very, very quickly.

Although Facebook may appear to have an unassailable critical-mass of users right now, I bet that as soon as "the next big thing" comes along, people will drop it like a hot potato.

Other online services have come and gone over the years and followed this boom/bust cycle with monotonous regularity.

Admittedly, Facebook has the advantage that a good percentage of its alleged 800m users already have a lot invested in the site, which makes moving away a lot harder. However, if/when someone offers a more attractive environment or service, Facebook has no way of locking the doors to prevent a mass exodus.

Of course when this happens, people most likely won't close down their Facebook accounts -- they'll simply spend less and less time on the service -- opting to engage their friends, family and associates on the "all new, singing and dancing social networking site de jour".

The risk to Facebook users is that when the company sees the critical numbers (revenues) declining as a result of this "Facebook fatigue", they will opt to leverage users private information and remaining presence to squeeze more blood from the stone that is your personal profile and uploaded material.

I'm picking that right now, we've already reached "peak Facebook" and the only way for a service at this point in its life is (unfortunately)... down. That is not the time to go buying stock in a company -- at least not if your goal is to create a return on that investment.

So what will create this shift away from Facebook and towards some other service?

Well I'm picking that it'll be something as simple and elementary as fashion.

En masse, humans are incredibly influenced by fashion. To be seen using a service that is deemed to be "out of fashion" or "old fashioned" is a horrible thing for many. Just as they'll spend huge sums to have the latest cars, latest stylish clothes, latest home appliances etc -- many, many people want to ensure that they are perceived by others to be "leading the pack".

The service that knocks Facebook for six will likely be driven by some very clever branding and those at its helm will be far more experienced in marketing and image-creation than in code-cutting or technology.

Just as Coca Cola has created a soft-drink that is seen as having some kind of greater value and being more fashionable than "HomeBrand Cola", the new Facebook killer will be pitched as "the place to be" for "anyone who is anyone".

Being the creatures they are, a huge number of Facebook users will long to be part of this sexy new service -- and will thus begin to cross over. Critical mass will follow and tired old Facebook will find itself relegated to the second division.

If I had spare cash in my pocket, I'd be watching very carefully for the appearance of such a competitor to Facebook and investing that money in it.

Will you be buying Facebook shares when they launch their IPO?

If so -- why?

If not -- why?

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