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Terror drones at the Olympics?

8 May 2012

The UK government has ordered the deployment of SAM (Surface to Air Missiles) at key strategic locations around the London Olympics venues.

These missiles, we're told, can shoot down any airborne attempt to disrupt the games or would-be terror attacks launched from the air.

Maybe they could take out a Cessna 172 with a couple of suicide bombers onboard -- but what about a smaller target?

What if the threat were small, lightweight, have a low radar profile and a virtually zero thermal signature?

I'm talking about a wave of small autonomous drone craft carrying explosives or biological weapons.

Does this sound far-fetched? Not really.

As I pointed out over a decade ago with the low-cost cruise missile (LCCM) project, the technology to deliver this kind of attack is not hard to get and in fact, these days it's even more prolific.

Although the mainstream media has published a few very poorly researched beat-up stories over the past few years, in which they've suggested that RC model planes could be used as a terror weapon, the reality is that such an attack would have to be more sophisticated -- but only a little.

The supply of miniature autopilot devices has exploded in recent times and now there are literally dozens of very cheap, very effective, very practical systems that can be programmed to guide any kind of flying craft from point A to point B using either a straight path or one that is deliberately obtuse, so as to avoid things such as missile batteries.

Battery and electric motor technology is also an order of magnitude better than that of a decade ago, something that would enable a significant payload to be carried over 10s of Kms with ease.

So what would I do if I were a terrorist attempting to disrupt the London Olympics?

At this point I should point out that I'm not a terrorist and I am not about to disclose the level of information that might make such a mission easier for those who would feel inclined to attempt it.

Well it strikes me that the easiest, most effective "terror strike" against these games would be to utilise a small fleet of electrically-powered drone craft to circle over the Olympic stadium during the opening ceremony and drop some harmless substance such as flour or chalk dust.

I think you can imagine the hysteria and terror that this would create below.

Authorities would be faced with the choice of deploying their "defense" weapons and possibly risking collateral damage (or the embarrassment of failing to shoot down the drones) -- or simply allowing the craft to complete their mission and fall to the ground.

The terrorists need not load up these craft with explosives, incendiary devices or bio-weapons -- the real weapon in such an attack is the fear and realisation that there is always the threat of a real attack using such craft.

So what's the point of this column?

Am I trying to give the terrorists ideas?

Well perhaps the only idea I'm trying to give them is that you don't need to actually kill or injure innocent people to make your point. Fear in itself is a powerful weapon when used intelligently -- as most terror groups already know.

I'm certainly hoping that such an attack never happens -- because I can see governments reaching for the nearest blunt instrument to stop a recurrence, which would probably be a total ban on all model aircraft and their flying.

Perhaps I'm hoping that people will realise that the only solution to terrorist wars is education and inviting countries such as the USA (who like to throw their weight around) that sometimes you ought not poke your nose in other people's business -- thus making some rather nasty enemies.

I'm also hoping that those challenged with the defense of the public against possible threats will be preparing to deal with "drone attacks" which will eventually happen. For the USA to believe that they alone have the technology needed to use drones in an offensive capacity would be a horrible mistake.

So how do you defend against a swarm of small autonomous drone craft that are incredibly stealthy and small -- thus making them difficult to detect and hard to shoot down.

Worth thinking about, isn't it?

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