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The decline of paper

Earlier this week I mentioned "the paperless office" - a much used phrase from the 1980s.

Back then, it was speculated that the rise in computers, email and digital storage would do away with the need for reams of paper in every office. As we all know, that transition is happening -- but much more slowly than the prophets predicted.

Proof that paper is becoming less and less essential could be seen in the news headlines from yesterday, when Norske Skog announced the cutting of 110 jobs at their Kawerau paper mill. The jobs will be lost when one of plant's production lines is shut down, a move driven by low prices, reduced demand and a high Kiwi dollar.

When you stop and think about it, chances are that paper has past its "best-by" date and the promised "paperless" world is closer than it has ever been.

For example, I'm one of the many folk who no longer subscribe to half a dozen or so printed magazines and newspapers -- why would I?

All the information I used to get from those printed periodicals is now found online and delivered to my eyes by way of the Net.

Given that this is a trend likely to continue, and that newspapers have been a major consumer of paper, the future looks a bit bleak for the newsprint industry.

Then there's the trend towards ebooks -- something that has surprised even the most cynical commentators.

Although Amazon and others reported a spike in the sale of printed volumes over the festive period, ebooks are already outselling hardcover and paperbacks by a growing margin and with readers getting ever-cheaper and better, this trend will continue for the foreseeable future.

It's also interesting to compare the volume of mail I get in my letterbox and PO Box today, compared to the amount I received just 10 years ago. Many of the companies I regularly deal with (such as my power co) now send me electronic invoices by email -- rather than a printed invoice in the mail. Myself, I seldom send letters any more. Virtually all of my written communications is done electronically.

So, although we're unlikely to see paper ever disappear completely - its role in publishing and communications is certainly in steep decline and the future for those who manufacture or distribute it is looking bleak.

We may never see the paperless world -- but we already have a less-paper one.

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