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Still nobody wants UFB?

Apparently, our "ultra fast broadband" service is taking off in a very ultra-slow manner.

While you'd think that Kiwis, as rampant early-adopters, would be chomping at the bit to take advantage of the promised 100Mbps speeds offered by UFB, apparently that's just not the case and figures indicate that only a very small percentage of those who have the service available to them are actually switching to it.

Why is that?

Is it the price?

It doesn't seem like the price differential is too great to me.

Is it the installation costs and minimum contract term?

Again, these aren't particularly unreasonable when you look at the massive step-up in performance that's on offer.

Is it the data-caps that are being foisted on potential UFB users?

Well I have to admit that most ISPs are offering ridiculously low caps on their capped plans but there are a number offering "unlimited" plans without such restrictions -- although performance is not guaranteed.

Or is it simply that ADSL/VDSL is fast enough for most folk so there's no real reason for them to pay extra for something they really won't use?

I tend to think it's probably the latter.

You don't need a lot of bandwidth to update your Facepalm page of an evening and even watching YouTube videos is quite practical with a half-decent ADSL connection.

Then there's the worry that if you choose a capped plan, the cost per GB works out to be quite a bit higher when connected by UFB than when connected by ADSL.

If you take a punt and go for the uncapped option then there is no guarantee that, a little way down the road, you'll find that because of data-shaping and throttling of the "unlimited pool", your UFB throughputs drop to levels that are lower than your current ADSL levels.

So it's a combination of extra cost and/or added uncertainty, combined with a lack of need that is holding back the UFB uptake.

Naturally, having sunk a huge amount of money into this project, the government will be very keen to see the uptake figure improve significantly -- or it makes everyone look more than a little silly.

How will they do this?

Odds are that they'll allow Chorus to hike the copper fee by a significant amount -- to the extent that UFB becomes cheaper than ADSL --albeit only because the price of ADSL will have been artificially raised to a ridiculous level. That won't benefit consumers but at least the government of the day will be able to crow about the "success" of UFB and Chorus's shareholders will be dancing all the way to the bank.

Personally, I think it might be more prudent for government to throw out a few challenges and promote (by way of those challenges) home-grown services or products that take good advantage of the bandwidth that UFB offers.

Let's see some great quality content made available via streaming video -- perhaps the equivalent of the way the government funded (then killed) several new TV channels solely to get the Freeview platform rolling.

Provide some unique, valuable content that is only available via UFB and then you'll get the ball rolling. Buy up the rights to some rugby games or whatever the nation is gagging to watch and do it that way perhaps.

It's time we remembered that "just because you build it, does not mean they will come".

Another problem with the uptake of UFB might be the fact that one of the first towns to see it rolled out is Tokoroa -- which is ranked in the last decile of disposable incomes in New Zealand. Many of the folk here couldn't afford UFB even if they wanted it so they can't expect any significant uptake until that changes and the district becomes more prosperous -- and, with the current council bureaucracy's attitude to supporting and attracting business here, there's little chance of that happening.

So, as I've said before, UFB remains the solution in search of a problem. Come on government -- you're good at making problems -- why not put your thinking caps on and come up with one for this situation?

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