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Quantum computers, whether we want them or not

There has been a lot of talk about the wonders of quantum computers.

We've been promised that QCs will be incredibly fast at performing certain types of calculations and that we'll be able to squeeze enormous amounts of processing power into tiny packages.

Right now there are billions of dollars being spent every year on trying to solve the problems that remain in the way of practical quantum computing -- even though one company, D-Wave, claim to have one you can buy already.

Unfortunately, the D-Wave offering has yet to show itself to be superior to more conventional non-quantum systems and some critics have claimed that it isn't really a QC at all. The main application for this system is as a QC training system which allows familiarisation with the concepts and operation -- even if there is no performance advantage.

However, the future of computing is definitely quantum -- simply because there may be no alternative.

Although Moore's Law has survived for several decades, we're now rapidly reaching the point where we just can't keep making the gates and other elements of our CPUs smaller and smaller.

It is widely accepted that 14 nanometres is the smallest practical size for non-quantum logic elements and right now, "state of the art" production can only produce 22nm elements.

Scientists have acknowledged that when you get to 7nm, quantum effects play havoc with the usually deterministic operation of such elements because the gates themselves are comprised of just an atom or two of material.

It seems that if we want to keep getting smaller and more powerful, we're going to have to move into the realm of quantum computing -- whether we want to or not. Unless we do, it seems that Moore's Law will be rendered invalid.

In an attempt to delay this shift, a lot of work is being done on replacing existing silicon devices with ones based on carbon (graphene). Early work suggests that switching speeds could be boosted by a factor of 10 but the quantum barrier remains a hurdle that must be vaulted if the gate-density of our CPUs is to continue increasing.

So are we on the verge of a technology shift that may be even more dramatic than when we transitioned from vacuum tubes to transistors?

It was only the development of semiconductors that have allowed the massively-large scale integration on which most of our modern electronics so heavily relies. Although early computers were based on thermionic valves, they were massive, consumed unbelievable amounts of power and operated at speeds that are positively sloth-like by comparison with modern systems.

If we can get the same levels of improvement in density, speed and efficiency with a shift to quantum processors as we got with the shift to semiconductors -- the future of computing will be very interesting indeed.

Both Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking have issued sage warnings about the massive rise in machine intelligence that will occur in the near future and it's almost certain that quantum computing will play a role in this.

What a shame we only live three score and ten years -- I'm picking that the next hundred years will be so damned exciting.

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