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Fools and their money

Regular readers will be very much aware that from time to time I like to highlight ridiculous tech ventures that only a fool would invest in.

Perhaps the most recent example was the now dead-and-buried Martin Jetpack.

Right from the moment of its launch at the 2008 Oshkosh airshow I predicted that this was a folly and would never ever see commercial production for a myriad of reasons. I then predicted every step of the evolution of this product, right down to its liquidation.

There have been a significant number of other such disasters that have been successfully highlighted as such on this site, well in advance of their inevitable failure.

Well it's time for some more crystal-ball gazing and predictions in this area.

Right now, the biggest area of foolish investment in tech ventures has to be electric flight, in the form of what's called AAM (advanced air mobility) or "air taxis".

All over the world, regulators are clearing the skies of pesky annoyances such as recreational RC and drone flyers in eager anticipation of the commercial bonanza that these AAM craft are supposedly going to represent.

Billions of dollars from gullible investors are being poured into these flights of fantasy and I really do wonder what these people are smoking.

Here in New Zealand I see that this crowd are in the news again with their "smoke and mirrors" claims and promises.

Nobody in their right mind should be signing $700m deals for a craft that, at this point in time, only has a proof-of-concept RC model to demonstrate its capabilities.

Already we're seeing the timelines promised starting to slip (from the news story):

I'll take a $100 bet right now with anyone that, come 2026 we will *not* see these craft operating as promised on the route between Whangarei and Auckland (or anywhere else in NZ for that matter).

Again... just not going to happen. Despite the small efficiency gains that are to be had from operating in ground-effect, there just is no battery technology even remotely on the horizon that can deliver this sort of range from an electrically powered flying vehicle.

Seriously... the Model T was a practical, commercially viable vehicle that used the technology of the day to deliver levels of performance that met the claims made for it. This is something that can not be said about these "Seagliders". People ought not confuse "sceptic" with "smart enough to see past the smoke and mirrors".

This whole electric-aviation and AAM thing is just another Martin Jetpack waiting to fail.

Far too many people are being swayed by fancy 3D renders and the promise that going electric is going to change the face of an industry that can only succeed once batteries can deliver the energy density and convenience of av-gas or Jet-A1 fossil fuels. History has proven that we only see a significant advance in battery technology about once every 20 or 30 years and there's no guarantee that even the next generation will have the necessary levels of performance.

As the title of todays column suggests... fools and their money are easily parted.

Carpe Diem folks!

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