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Buy an EV now or wait?

EVs are great. EVs are green. EVs are the future.

However, one must ask the question: "Is now a good time to buy an EV?"

No doubt there are thousands of people around the country asking themselves that very question, as it becomes time to upgrade from or to replace their existing ICE vehicle.

The benefits of EVs are many and the argument in favour of ditching dino-juice is a strong one but there are also some very serious negatives that may need to be considered before taking the plunge.

The first, and most obvious negative is the rate of depreciation that is to be expected when you buy a brand new EV.

With EV manufacturers seemingly cutting rather than increasing prices on an almost daily basis, waiting a bit longer may save you some serious coin. Just ask any recent Tesla purchaser about the price they paid and they'll confirm this fact.

Then there's the undeniable fact that EVs are getting better as the technology begins to mature.

The range of a modern EV far exceeds that of earlier examples and, thanks to improved battery management technology, the warranted life of the batteries has also been greatly enhanced. If you're looking to buy at the bottom of the price spectrum then you'll likely be assaulted with a raft of Sino-brand EVs and they've all come a long way since they first appeared just a few short years ago.

Right now the biggest limiting factor in EVs is the battery and although many apparent "breakthroughs" have been announced, even by companies such as Toyota, we've seen no significant change in chemistry for quite a few years. Does this mean that big changes are just round the corner? I wouldn't bet on it.

One interesting bit of work being done in the USA right now has seen the lower-cost, safer and longer-lived LFP batteries combined with a claimed "Anode free" battery technology into a single pack, a setup that claims to offer sigificant benefits.

LFP batteries can take many charge/discharge cycles and, unlike other lithium-ion chemistries, don't suffer a penalty for being charged to 100 percent capacity all the time. The new battery pack uses some LFP cells that it's claimed would deliver sufficient range for 90 percent of all day-to-day driving. Also included however, is the other higher-density battery tech that kicks in when the LFP cells get down. These other cells don't drive the vehicle directly but recharge the LFP cells as required.

Those high-density cells can only withstand a much lower number of charge/discharge cycles but because they're only used about 10 percent of the time, they can deliver significant extra range when needed and still last the life of the pack as a whole.

It's yet to be seen if this will become a commercial reality but quite a bit of money is being invested in bringing these hybrid packs to the market.

Perhaps because of this, and other advances, buying a brand new EV right now might not be the wisest choice for anyone who is looking to save money. If/when we see these tech improvements appearing in new vehicles, the resale value of older-tech models will drop significantly, even more than the current rate of depreciation.

If you lose $30K in the value of an EV during the first 12 months of ownership you have to remember that that chunk of change would have bought a *huge* amount of petrol for powering an ICE car.

However, if planet-saving rather than money-saving is your ultimate goal, it's always a good time to buy an EV -- although remember that future EVs will likely last a lot longer than those made up to this point and there's the total carbon-cost of manufacture and disposal to consider in your calculations.

As for me... I won't be buying an EV (or any new car) at any time in the near future. I plan to do my bit to save the planet by simply walking more and driving less. Hell, I think I clocked up less than 500Km over the past six months because, even in the depths of winter, I still walk to the supermarket and almost everywhere else. My truck usually sits in the garage and only gets used when I have to carry something that won't fit in a backpack or if it's peeing down with rain.

I fear that if I bought an EV I might be tempted to use it more than I should, because I could afford to.

Carpe Diem folks!

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