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eVTOL aircraft - the hype-train

Electric power is starting to revolutionise our ideas of personal transportation.

Not only do we have EVs becoming commonplace on our roads but we're also seeing electric scooters and ebikes changing the way we move about.

The convenience and low-cost of electricity as an energy source for transport is an attractive feature but so is the lower cost of maintenance, the lower noise levels and reduction in polution that e-transport offers us.

As vehicle efficiency improves and charging infrastructure becomes ubiquitous there's not much to dislike about EVs, especially if you have a performance-model that will give you rocket-like acceleration the momement you push on the pedal.

Let's also not forget that we've had electric busses and trains for many decades, however there is one part of our transport system where electricity has yet to make any significant impact.

I'm talking about air-transport, of course.

While it's true that almost all recreational and commercial drones are electrically powered, we don't see much in the way of electric passenger aircraft.

Sure, there have been proof of concept craft and trial flights conducted in various places to show that it can be done but to date, the hurdles remain and commercial electric passenger flight remains beyond the reach of commercial viability.

Unfortunately, that hasn't stopped unscrupulous companies from promising the earth to investors -- even if all they deliver is not "the earth" but a hand-full of dirt, or less.

The most popular form of electric aircraft being proposed right now are the eVTOL air-taxies that many companies are supposedly developing and to date, gullible investors have sunk huge sums into these ventures -- for no return.

I've crunched the numbers and I can tell you that we are a *long* way from having the tech needed to build and operate a commercially viable eVTOL air-taxi service. In fact it's probably going to be a decade or so before these things are able to turn a profit.

Batteries are too heavy, too low in capacity and have a far too limited lifespan to deliver on the promises currently being made by the multitude of companies that are in the game.

As a result, we've already seen a number of these ventures collapse and fold (as I predicted).

Even the most well-funded and tech-savvy companies such as Airbus are now waking up to the reality that eVTOL is going nowhere.

Meanwhile a bunch of others such as Lilium and Volocopter have simply failed, despite hundreds of millions of dollars being thrown at them by investors who can't even be bothered reading this column for sage advice :-)

Now, it appears, another one of the big names is in trouble and has been caught out engaging in some really sketchy practices so as to keep the investment capital flowing into the black hole that is Archer Aviation.

Take a look at this YouTube video to see just how much snake-oil is involved and Archer are not alone in this level of deception and hype-mongering:

They say "a fool and his money are soon parted" and that has never been more obvious in the stampede amongst investors to throw money at the eVTOL market. The thing that bewilders me is how so many people who are obviously idiots, managed to accumulate so much money in the first place. Surely these investors have heard of "due dilligence"?

I guess that FOMO is a powerful motivator when it comes to investing and given the hype that has surrounded these eVTOL craft and the air-taxi services they're promising to deliver, a lot of dullard types have simply screamed "take my money!, only to regret it later.

What also amazes me is the number of people creating these startups who must clearly know that they're lying about their capabilities, timeframes and profit expectations. When the walls come tumbling down and investors are left out of pocket, why isn't anyone held to account?

They tell us that Elizabeth Holmes knew full-well that her machine would never work so when that venture collapsed she was jailed. What will happen to the principles of Archer Aviation if they also go bankrupt -- given the misrepresentations they've made to investors?

I suspect the answer is that they will take their huge director's salaries and bonuses, buy a new Lambo or two, spend a couple of years holidaying in the Caribean and then create some other equally ill-conceived startup and repeat the whole process.

Carpe Diem folks!

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