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Spring is here

Woohoo, spring is here.

As if to emphasize the point, yesterday was surprisingly spring-like around these parts with a somewhat mild day filled with menacing clouds and the odd sprinkle of rain.

My state of mind is often highly weather-dependent and I do get a bit SAD in winter, not only because I hate the cold but also because rain and bitter temperatures make it much harder for me to get in the amount of walking that keeps me relatively free from the worst effects of Parkinson's.

Spring is the season of change and already the magnolia tree in the front yard has burst into bloom, while the daffodils in the parks have all sprouted their bright yellow flowers. Indeed, spring is a time of optimism and anticipation of the warm, sunny days ahead.

Sadly, there are a lot of people out there who are feeling anything but cheerful and optimistic right now -- and it's all thanks to technology.

A growing number of the videos I've been watching and blog posts I've been reading from people whose content I respect, are trending negative.

These people have seen the writing on the wall and are sharing their dispair at what the future may hold for them and their strategies for dealing with the effects of AI.

They range from musicians:

To photographers and videographers:

Almost everyone, it seems, is preparing for the huge disruption that AI poses to their ability to earn a living and their way of life.

As someone who makes his living by creating videos, I am also very much aware that my tenure is limited. As clearly demonstrated by the AI-generated footage in the second video (above), technology is replacing everyone in the creative industry. Actors, people with cameras, writers, special-effects artists, musicians -- the lot, they're all fast becoming redundant.

As Tony Northrup says, the sad thing is that most people watching, reading or listening to this AI-generated material won't care. They just want mindless entertainment so created on a scale that allows for endless scrolling.

What I did notice to be common to both these videos is an awareness that the "one to many" relationship that platforms such as YouTube and Spotify have fostered are almost certainly going to be replaced by "one to few" relationships. Mary Spender will be playing her music in live gigs to a smaller number of people and Tony will be teaching small groups of people how to sharpen their photography skills.

One has to wonder however, whether this "one to few" model is sustainable. In order to pay the bills, those "few" will have to pay much more than the "many" who contribute towards one's earnings under the current model. Creators will also have to work a whole lot harder if they want to keep a roof over their heads.

Right now, a creator or artist can create a single instance of their work (a video, song or whatever) then post it on a platform where it will remain and continue generating revenue forever. When you're giving a live performance or training small groups you only get paid for the hours you put in. Once you stop, so do your earnings.

Creators who once thought they'd be able to retire at some stage and live off their residuals will have to rethink that plan now.

As I've said before, YouTube itself is already giving strong hints that it wants to dramatically increase the amount of AI-generated content it publishes. No, it's not so much keen on exsiting creators making AI-generated stuff, it wants to come up with a system where all that work is done internally by its own systems. That means it won't have to share a cent of ad revenues with anyone.

I strongly suspect we're about to see an interesting period in the history of mankind. There will be a massive surge in the quantity and variety of AI-generated "creative" material that will flood the internet. People will become conditioned to this and man-made content will fall from fashion and popularity.

However, without the creativity of the human mind it will take only a few years before we see this surge subside as it becomes monotonous and boring. Deprived of much in the way of new human-generated innovative content, the AI models will stagnate and rot.

Give the world another six to eight years and there'll be a huge renaissance in "real people" generated material. As with most things, the cycle will have come full-circle and AI material will be looked upon as cheap and second-rate. People will once again search out and savour the type of content that only a real human mind can create.

Well at least that's what I'm predicting.

How do I intend to survive the next few years in the face of the AI assault?

Self-hosted "real" content that addresses the needs and wants of those who are not interested in mind-numbing AI-generated content. It'll be a small niche market but it will be sustainable for those who fully commit to it and deliver what that tiny audience is seeking.

Carpe Diem folks!

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