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Dark days ahead?

The USA has bombed the snot out of Iran and the side-effects of this are that many countries may find themselves facing significant energy shortages.

The Straights of Hormuz are a major thoroughfare for oil and gas tankers, accounting for about 20 percent of the West's oil supplies and right now this piece of water is a no-go zone for such vessels. Insurance companies are refusing to provide cover for any ship that would dare to take the risk.

Even in this part of the world, both New Zealand and Australia are running on fumes with a fuel reserve that is measured in days, rather than months.

Just what does this mean to the average Kiwi?

The most immediate effect has been a spike in fuel prices.

Some parts of the country are now reportedly seeing petrol prices of over $3 per litre and that's expected to increase as the situation in the Middle East continues to worsen.

As someone who drives as little as possible, the price I pay for petrol doesn't concern me too much. I'm presently clocking up about 300Km every 6 months (between WOFs) so that's less than two tanks worth a year. Even if the price doubles it's only an extra $4 a week once you crunch the numbers.

However, the actual cost of fuel to the consumer is probably going to be the least of our worries.

The bigger problem will be the flow-on effect on the price of... well... *everything*.

Since we're a long, thin nation, thousands of Km from anywhere and since our entire food production industry is heavily reliant on fosil fuels, we're all headed for a world of hurt when it comes time to restock the pantry or pay our bills. There's nothing we can really do to avoid that.

Even worse, summer is now just a memory and we're headed into winter over the coming months. This means we'll not only be poor and hungry but also cold.

It's not just the high cost of petrol and diesel that may affect us, it's also the availability. If you can't buy fuel at any price then things get a whole lot worse. How are you going to get to work if we end up with fuel rationing like we had in the late 1970s?

Are we headed for more "carless days"?

Those who are used to commuting to their jobs in the warmth and comfort of their own car, with the heater wound up, a cheery tune flowing from the speakers while enjoying a comfortable recline in their heated seats may find the shift to a damp, noisy, crowded bus or train a huge step down.

I guess that for some, working from home will again become the norm, if they can't easily get to their offices in the city.

This whole explosion of conflict in the Middle East must throw a spanner in the works of the NZ Government's plans to build an LNG terminal to import gas from overseas to help with our electricity generation capacity. With that in mind, I expect we'll also see another surge in electricity prices and some on fixed incomes may have to choose between food and heating during the darkest months if things aren't resolved within the next year or two.

The looming increase in power prices may also wipe a little of that smug grin off the faces of those who have already invested in EVs (such as the Prime Minister, who bought his before promptly removing the incentives that were in place at the time).

Don't get too depressed however, there is always a silver lining.

No matter how dark the night, no matter how cold the wind, no matter how depressing things may at first appear. Remember, your daily-dose of Aardvark will be waiting for you each week-day morning.

Hmmm... perhaps that wasn't as uplifting as I hoped it would be :-)

Carpe Diem folks!

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