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Is it time to get ready for the fallout?

Political and military tensions continue to rise around the world.

Some commentators are picking that some very bad things may happen before the end of the year as a synergy of pressures result in what they claim will be the start of WW3.

We know that the Ukraine/Russian conflict is in danger of spiraling out of control, as the reality of the conflict starts to be forced onto the average Russian by way of smoke-laiden skies, disrupted online retail services and ever-longer queues at petrol stations. This places domestic pressure on Putin to resolve the "three day special military operation" that was launched against Ukraine several years ago.

The USA's war with Iran has also concerned many so-called "experts" who claim it has significantly depleted America's inventory of hi-tech weapons.

Some of those experts claim that this now leaves the USA more vulnerable than it has been at any time since the end of WW2.

The biggest problem for domestic USA is the lack of a sustainable anti-missile defence arsenal. The essential Patriot ant-missile missiles are now in very short supply which leaves both the continental USA and its bases around the world at risk of effective strikes by enemies.

Then of course there's the ever-present spectre of China choosing to take Taiwan by military force. Most believe that this isn't a "if" but a "when" and the timing may soon be optimal. That's because the USA has spread itself somewhat thin, stationing key naval assets in close proximity to the Iran war theatre and because it has announced a reluctance to be drawn into other nation's conflicts.

Another worrying factor is the ever-closer relationship between North Korea and Russia, with the former now providing not only troops but also missiles to aid Putin's war against Ukraine. This will not only embolden North Korea but it's also likely that payment for this assistance will be in the form of weapons technology.

With the USA effectively moving to distance itself from South Korea, due to that country's unwillingness to help in the Iran conflict, North Korea may feel that an attempt to reunify the Korean peninsula by force may have much higher odds of success in the near future.

Add to all this the simmering tensions between India and Pakistan, plus the endless sporadic fighting between Israel and Hezbollah then it is clear to see that what we have is a global tinderbox which will require just one mistake or bad decision to ignite.

Russia has threatened the UK and it is believed that they may launch a cyber-attack at some time in the near future or perhaps even engage in a "skirmish" with the British Navy or Air Force as part of the ongoing brinksmanship that has been taking place. This has the potential to escalate very quickly, especially with Russia repeatedly boasting that its nuclear torpedos could sink the British Isles.

So what about New Zealand? Where do we stand?

As allies of Britain, we may get called on to provide resources, although let's face it, other than a few brave soldiers, we don't really have much to offer and odds are that any war between nuclear powers such as Russia and the UK won't be a "boots on the ground" affair anyway.

What New Zealand needs to do right now is prepare for the worst, whilst continuing to hope for the best.

We need to do a lot of contingency planning for the "worst case" scenario. This is where WW3 really does break out, with multiple theatres of conflict and the very real risk of nuclear weapons being used, even if only involving "tactical" or limited exchanges.

Our access to "essentials" that we don't make ourselves could be significantly effected. This means technology and raw materials that we do not have here in NZ. Such things should be stockpiled, to at least a small degree, "just in case".

Imagine what would happen to NZ if we could no longer import diesel or petrol -- our economy would grind to a halt and even our ability to produce enough food to feed our own people would be hugely impacted. Likewise, the death toll from treatable illnesses and disease would soar, once our supplies of crucial medications such as antibiotics ran out.

Perhaps there needs to be a "subsistence survival" plan in development right now in order to protect the people of NZ from events that will be totally out of their control.

Or, as is more likely the case, we'll just cross our fingers and keep hoping for the best -- then look stunned and surprised when the Northern Hemisphere erupts in mass conflict.

Carpe Diem folks!

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