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It's all the sun's fault?

Nothing brings a group of intelligent (and otherwise) people to the boil quicker these days than the topic of anthropomorphic global warming (AGW).

In one corner you have those who are 100% certain that the earth is well down the slippery slope to a future where temperatures soar, desertification is widespread and the world becomes a very different and less hospitable place than it is today -- all because of mankind's abuse of fossil fuel resources.

In the other corner we have the deniers who argue that the data is inconsistent and/or that any warming is a result of external forces that are far beyond those within the control of the human race at present.

Although there are crowds of supporters in each corner, there is also a good sized number of folk wandering back and forth.

Reports on the wires today might send a few more to the deniers' corner though.

Apparently it's all to do with the sun.

This Wall Street Journal story points to some very weird goings-on over on the sun.

Right now, the surface of the sun ought to be littered with sunspots and solar flares as it approaches the peak of the usual 11 year cycle -- but it's not.

In fact, this is the weakest solar maximum for 200 years, something that leaves researchers scratching their heads as to what will happen next.

Other unusual things are also going on with a predicted magnetic pole reversal resulting in two south poles being apparent -- a decidedly unexpected situation.

Magnetic reversals are a not unusual aspect of the sun's behaviour but this one seems to have stalled half-way through -- shortly after the old North pole became a South pole but before the South also reversed to become the new North.

There are now some who believe that if the sun is entering a protracted period of unexpected quiescence, the rise in global temperatures will once again fall well short of predictions.

This would not be the first time such predictions were proven to be overly pessimistic and most recently the disparity has been ascribed to the effect of a CFC ban several decades ago. Scientists claim that fluorocarbons are powerful greenhouse gases and although the primary reason for their ban was to control the rapidly growing ozone-layer hole over Antarctica, another effect was to slow the rate of global warming.

Right now, a good number of solar scientists are saying that we're not actually entering an unusually quiet period of solar activity but returning to "the norm" -- suggesting that the period since 1940 has been one in which solar activity has been unusually high. This itself could have contributed significantly to the rise in global temperatures seen over the past 70 years -- reducing the veracity of claims that the effect is mostly man-made.

Whatever the truth, the reality is that we will continue to debate, argue and discuss the issue for many decades to come.

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